Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.
It campaigned for more than three years for the rights to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.
That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.
This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.
The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.
This contrasted with the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".
Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.
The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.
There is little sign the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.
That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.
In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.
The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.
Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.
There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.
But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.
The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.
Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.
However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.
Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.
President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries feared a conference obstructed from the top if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.
A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.
Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.
This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.
"Each effective summit has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."
There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?
Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.
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